Hello Gov Trackers,

You probably weren’t expected to hear from me until mid-November, but how could I stay away? More importantly, how can Congress? 

Legislators left town in September to campaign after passing a “skinny” Continuing Resolution that kept the federal government funded, temporarily. It provided more money for the Secret Service but did not include the $10 billion in requested funds for the Federal Emergency Management Agency, which had indicated it was running out of money. Legislators did allow for FEMA to more rapidly draw down its appropriated funds.

Since then the landfall of Hurricane Helene left unbelievable destruction in its path. Hurricane Milton, a Category 5 storm as of Monday, October 7, is currently bearing down on Florida. 

The billions of dollars in outstanding emergency needs range from Vermont’s 2024 flooding to Hawaii’s 2023 wildfires. President Biden suggested Congress may need to return “early,” a point raised by several Republican and Democratic legislators, although Speaker Johnson thus far has indicated an unwillingness to do so.

This is not entirely surprising, as spending money is at the crux of his dilemma. One faction within the Republican party wants to rein in all spending, toppling prior Republican Speaker Kevin McCarthy and pushing out Speaker John Boehner over those issues.

Passing emergency spending legislation prior to the election likely would split the Republican party. The ascendant hardline faction would seek to oppose spending or to attach extraneous conditions that they know could never receive agreement from the Senate or White House (in jargon we’d call these “poison pills”). (One confounding factor here is that some hardliners are in states that suffered huge blows from these natural disasters. They might be willing to flip the script.)

More traditional Republicans may be willing to spend the funds, but such a vote would tamp down enthusiasm in their districts and open them to primary challenges later on. Speaker Johnson, having to shepherd such legislation into law, would have to irritate one side or another, which doesn’t bode well for his longevity at the top spot.

Making matters more politically complex is that the House and Senate would have to return to Washington, D.C. The House eliminated its ability to vote remotely and the Senate never possessed that capability. It is possible that both chambers could operate with less than a quorum, although any objections — which one could expect from hardline members — would throw efforts to quickly vote into disarray.

In the meantime, millions of Americans are looking for help. If the past is any guide, help won’t be coming until November, if then.